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Google shows we should launch in March - in Budapest.” Google sees that the real heat in the e-bike market comes in the early spring and is strongest in eastern Europe. “Google draws on millions and millions of searches, from people of all ages. But older consumers are one of our most important markets.” “With everyone using mobile phones now instead of land lines, telephone surveys are difficult. “I admit, the sample wasn’t huge,” she said. There was a lot of spin in their results.” “But it turned out their sample was small, and heavily skewed toward older consumers. The Berne Bicycle Fair, roads with giant hills, and consumers who are fanatical about cycling and have money to spend. They say November in Switzerland, and I’m inclined to agree with them. That’s why I used their data to set our prices, and it’s why I have confidence in their analysis about a launch date and site. Our market-research people know what they’re doing. “Remember when our market research people showed us that in Germany, France, and Switzerland, purchase intentions for e-bikes reach a peak in the weeks before Christmas? We were able to go back to them and ask them questions: How big was your sample? How do you know your data are accurate? For every question, we got an answer. “When you pay real money for something, there’s accountability,” she said as she and Eugen crossed the long footbridge on their way back to the company’s executive building, whose soaring profile was visible in the distance. She had spent some money on an outside firm that specialized in Google-data analysis, but the cost hadn’t amounted to much. Massive amounts of data were there at her fingertips, and all for free. She had stared wide-eyed as Eugen showed her spikes in consumer interest in e-bikes during specific times of year - spring, when cycling enthusiasts were beginning to take to the roads, and midsummer, when the Tour de France was on every television and mobile phone - and in certain regions.

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And of course she knew how to Google things on the internet - who doesn’t? But Google Trends was a whole new world for her.

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Stefanie was a new-product pro - she had handled numerous product launches when she was in Vado’s motorcycle unit. “Still - it’s nothing compared to the cost of corporate market research.” “The data may be free, but we still have to spend money on analysis,” she said. I think the reason you trust traditional market research is that you have to pay for it out of your budget.” Stefanie was indebted to Eugen for his brilliance, but that grin was beginning to grate on her. “That’s why I always smile when I hear you agonize over whether to rely on it. “The only thing quote-unquote wrong with the Google data is that it’s free,” said Eugen. Please contribute by offering insights, solutions, and stories from your own experience.) Google trends,” by Simeon Vosen and Torsten Schmidt, in the Journal of Forecasting (September 2011). This story was inspired by “ Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. Like HBR’s traditional case studies, HBR.org’s Management Puzzles are based on academic research into business problems. (Editor’s note: This fictional Management Puzzle dramatizes a dilemma faced by leaders in real companies. I really do,” she said to Eugen, the Oryx’s chief engineer. These were exciting times for their employer, the German automaker Vado, as it moved into the rapidly expanding e-bike industry, but Stefanie, the manager of the new e-bike unit, was feeling the weight of the decisions she faced. Stefanie and Eugen had gone for a walk to finalize the details of their company’s launch of a similar high-end electric bicycle, named the Oryx. The rider of the e-bike drew admiring stares as he swiftly overtook other cyclists. Stefanie soon saw what her tech-obsessed colleague had noticed in the crowd of bicycles here along the Danube: A black electric motor attached to the frame of a handsome white bicycle. What a work of art - even though it’s one of our competitors.

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“It’s just that you’ve been having this argument with yourself for two months: Should we or shouldn’t we trust Google’s free data on the intensity of web searches? Look!” he suddenly exclaimed. “I’m sorry,” Eugen said, trying to keep a straight face. Our traditional market research is telling us something else. The managing director needs to know when and where we’re launching. “It’s decision time,” Stefanie said to her younger colleague.